Reasoning
The strongest axis is alignment, and even it sits at 0.20 — your $4,200 stake is well above the weight of evidence presented for the thesis. The weakest is falsifiability: you have not named a single observation that would tell you, three months out, that the bike failed its claim. The thesis is behavioral — this will get me back into serious training — but the evidence offered is desire duration (six months of wanting) and a value-anchor (the wheels alone are worth $800). Neither bears on whether ownership causes the behavior. Equipment-as-motivation is a documented anti-pattern; you are asking a frame to do the work of a habit. Re-run with a real falsifier and a real catalyst, or resize the question: what is the cheapest experiment that tests whether you actually train more?
<PRV> Provenance · per-axis confidence
evidence0.150w 0.30
differentiation0.200w 0.25
falsifiability0.100w 0.20
timing0.150w 0.15
alignment0.200w 0.10
C = Σ wᵢ·cᵢ = 0.30(0.15)+0.25(0.20)+0.20(0.10)+0.15(0.15)+0.10(0.20) = 0.158
τ = τ₀ + α·S + β·σ_stakes + γ·irr = 0.50 + 0.15(0.98) + 0.10(0.45) + 0.05(0) = 0.692
r_eff = ( +0.024, +0.062, +0.157 ) · ρ = ½ ( I + r_eff·σ ) · S(ρ) = 0.981